Exbookie Want To Help The Player Week 15

[ACE-ACE]

IN MY OPINION,ALL GOOD HANDICAPPERS ARE REALLY JUST ODDSMAKER....IN OTHER WORD,THE HANDICAPPING PROCESS IS A SIMPLE MATTER OF USING ONE'S OWN SYSTEM OR SET OF CRITERIA TO DETERMINE PRICE AND PICE IN THE WORLD OF SPORTS BETTING IS THE POINT SPREAD....

IN OTHER WORDS,HOW PRICE RELATES TO THE FUNDAMENTAL MATCH UP....OFTEN VALUE HOWEVER HAS LESS TO DO WITH ACTUAL HANDICAPPING ASPECTS AND MORE TO DO WITH SENTIMENT....SINCE THE PULIC LIKES BETTING THE BETTER TEAM, ODDMAKERS PLACE A HIGHER PRICE TAG ON THEM.IN TURN,ODD MAKERS WILL PRRICE THE POOR TEAMS MORE CHEAPLY TO ENTICE ACTION........

WHY DO YOU THINK THE DEFENDING SUPERBOWL CHAMPIONS ARE ALWAYS SUCH A POOR BET THE YEAR FOLLOW THEIR TITLE RUN? IT IS SIMPLY BECAUSE THEY ARE OVERVALVED.......IF YOU HAVE NOT GUESSED BY NOW... THE POINT OF THIS WHOLE DISTRIBE IS TO EXPLAIN WHAT I MEAN BY VALVE AND WHY I BELIEVE IT IS SO IMPORTANT...

IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN KNOWING ABOUT VALUE AND BEING ABLE TO FIND VALVE..

VALUE IS ABOUT FINDING TEAMS THAT ARE UNDER PRICED IN RELATION TO THEIR EXPECTED WIN RATE.

 

[metro1]

ACE WHATS UP BUDDY GREAT RUN BY THE WAY HAVE NOT BEEN POSTING LATLEY FAM PROBS NO ITS NOT GAMBILING! HAVE NOT TIME TO POST TO MUCH **** IN LIFE TO SIT AND POST BUT ON A GREAT RUN ALSO SD LAST WEEK AND OVER MADE ONE HELL OF A WEEK WELL GREAT TO SIT AND TYPE AGAIN GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK LOOKING AT A BIG ONE STILL DOING SOME HOMEWORK LATER METRO:digit:

 

[EasyMoney]

Ace,

For the most part I think your on the money with the previous statement. However, I'm sure you also realize that there are exceptions to every rule. I list the following as examples

New England
Phily
Indy

Those three teams are very popular, very good and have been for a few years. Yet the combine for something like 26-10-3 this year ATS. They did all lose ATS this past week but still thats 72.2% for the year. Hell NE is like 21-5-3 since the start of last year.

Just out of curiosity why do you think those teams almost always beat the number? To me those 3 have been the most consistent teams over the last 3 years yet they continue to win ATS.

But I do agree with you for the most part. TB after they won, Car after last year, Oak the year after they where in the super bowl. Not only did they not have good ATS records they didn't even have good SU records.

 

[ACE-ACE]

BETS OVER $2000..................17-8........+$25,305.00

BETS UNDER$1300.................21-16.......+$2885.00

..............................................TOTAL.....+$28,190.00

I HAVE WON.....11 WEEK......AND LOST 3

AWAY HAVE WON 16 MORE THIS YEAR....

104 FAV...VS 104 DOGS .................

AWAY FAV.........40-25.................

POINTS THAT MATTER.....33 OUT OF 208. 16%
(4 MORE....THAT COULD OF MATTER BASE ON LINE MOVEMENT &HOOKS)

DOGS WINNING STRAIGHT-UP......71 OUT OF 208 34%

BOOKS LINE...........................VS MY LINE

PIT -10.....................................-12

WAS-3 1/2.................................-7

ATL-4........................................-1

NYJ-6........................................-8

PHI -12 1/2................................-11

MIN-3........................................-2

SD-10.........................................-13

BUF-2.........................................-6

GB -4 1/2...............................JAC-3

CHI-1....................................HOU-6

TB-7 1/2......................................-9

STL -1 1/2............................. ARI -5

KC-1............................................-3

OAK-2.....................................TEN-2

IND -7 1/2...................................-10

NE- 9 1/2.....................................-11


I LIKE HOUSTON THIS WEEK

CHI ONLY SCORE 15 POINTS AVG A GAME
CHI...3ND DOWN PLAYS IS AVG 23%....WOW.....THAT LOW
TURN OVER GAME....HOU 22...VS 31 CHI
RUSING .........................109.VS 102
PASSING.........................217 VS 138
HOU IS THE BETTER OFFENSE.....
HOU GOT THE T/O PART OF THE GAME

I SAW THE WHOLE GAME IND VS HOU....(THANK TO TIVO....A GREAT TOOL HERE GUYS)......THEY PLAY WITH HEART!!!!


MY BET BEFORE THE LINE GOES UP HOU +1 FOR $2500.00

MORE TO COME

 

[ACE-ACE]

EASYMONEY.....FOR EVERY GREAT TEAM.....NE....PHILY....INDY......THE COACHES TELL THEM HOW TO......WHERE TO.......AND HOW MANY TIMES....THEY MAKE THE TEAM





METRO...GLAD TO SEE YOU BACK....

 

[cruisin]

ACE, an observation. Do you think it matters that this past weekend Houston (who plays way better at home than the road) had some major revenge to get off their chests vs Indy, along with the fact they play way better at home? Thanks for your input.

 

[ACE-ACE]

ACE, an observation. Do you think it matters that this past weekend Houston (who plays way better at home than the road) had some major revenge to get off their chests vs Indy, along with the fact they play way better at home? Thanks for your input.

IT MAY....IF THEY WERE PLAYING....MIN...NE.....PHI...SO ON...

BUT THEY ARE PLAYING CHI.....IF YOU ARE LOOKING AT THE MATCH-UP ..(EACH TEAM PLAYS DIFF...AGAINST ANOTHER).......I SEE HOUSTON WINNING BY MORE THAN A TD......

 

[cruisin]

Ok, thanks. Sometimes Chicago gets these bursts at inopportune times. I enjoy reading your analysis of games.

 

[thecruncher]

I like the Texans this week, also. I played them in a couple of pleasers just for fun as well -- with Jax-2.5 and AZ -4.5. Our lines and their values are close for a lot of games this week, Ace. I'll post my lines Thursday after injury updates.

 

[supersharp]

Ace, what do you think about Buffalo? They are pick at the books and you have -6. Seems like they'd have as much value as Hou which is also currently PK and you have at -6

Thanks,
:toast:

 

[MaxPower+]

you're list shows Jacksonville with some potential. Are you considering a play with them?

 

[ACE-ACE]

supersharp-max power

yes im looking at jac and buf....BUT THIS IS WED.... I PUT HOUSTON UP BECAUSE IT WAS ONE THAT GOOD LIKE A WINNER....

MY LINE IS JUST A STARTED POINT FOR HANDICAPPING BUF-2....VS MY LINE OF -6........TELL ME THAT BUF CAN WIN BY 6...... NOW YOU HAVE TO READ BETWEEN THE LINES......SAME WITH ALL THE GAMES.....GB VS JAC.....IS DIFF.... GB IS -3 1/2.....MY LINE ITS JAC +3.....ITS SAYING THAT JAC HAS A CHANGE TO WIN.....

I PUT "MY LINE UP TO MAKE YOU THINK"....IF THIS IS THE NEW LINE WHICH TEAM WOULD YOU PICK.....

I WILL PUT MY PICKS UP AS THE WEEK GOES ON.....

 

[geeze]

ACE,

The Big Four (Patriots, Colts, Steelers and Eagles) have already clinched their divisions.

But do they all still have something to play for?

I mean have they all clinched homefield advantage, or earned a bye? Or are they ready to rest their starters for the playoffs.

I really would like a response, PLEASE!

Thank you.

 

[joelatti]

Ace

What about putting the big 3 in a tease

Pitt pk, Phil -2, NE +.5

 

[Knockout]

Hey Ace,

I sent you an email w/ the rough draft of the file I created. don't know if you've had a chance to look at it yet. Let me know what you think.

 

[geeze]

ACE,


glaken has a post where he explains the entire playoff scenario, but he doesn't say whether or not the COLTS have clinched either a first round bye, or home field advantage.

Do you know if the Colts have or have not?

Thank you!

 

[ACE-ACE]

ACE,

The Big Four (Patriots, Colts, Steelers and Eagles) have already clinched their divisions.

But do they all still have something to play for?

I mean have they all clinched homefield advantage, or earned a bye? Or are they ready to rest their starters for the playoffs.

I really would like a response, PLEASE!

Thank you.

.....FOR THIS WEEK ITS STILL WAR!!!! NE....COLTS AND PIT...BUT PHILLY HAS HOME AND THE BEST RECORD.....THEY WILL START RESTING PLAYER....FOR THE PLAYOFF....

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace

What about putting the big 3 in a tease

Pitt pk, Phil -2, NE +.5

I WOULD NOT WITH PHIL.....I GOT A 3 TEAM COMING BY FIRDAY...

 

[ACE-ACE]

ACE,


glaken has a post where he explains the entire playoff scenario, but he doesn't say whether or not the COLTS have clinched either a first round bye, or home field advantage.

Do you know if the Colts have or have not?

Thank you!

IND HAS ALMOST CLINCH....WITH DEN LOSS......OR A WIN AND A TIE BY DENVER...

 

[ACE-ACE]

Hey Ace,

I sent you an email w/ the rough draft of the file I created. don't know if you've had a chance to look at it yet. Let me know what you think.

I GOT IT.....YOU MAY THINK ITS EASY...BUT GIVE ME TIME.....ON SATURDAY I WILL SHOW YOU HOW I DO IT......WITH THE WEIGHT ON DIFF PARTS OF THE GAME......UNTILL THEN